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VT 
US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that recent inflation data show progress towards the 2% target. However, he warned about the uncertainty in the outlook, as new import tariffs could potentially raise prices.
Jefferson mentioned the current moderately restrictive policy rate is apt for responding to economic changes. While recent inflation data aligns with the 2% goal, he cautioned about the future uncertainty due to tariffs.
Impact of Tariffs
The possibility of tariffs leading to higher inflation remains uncertain in terms of its duration. Economic growth is expected to slow because of trade policy, but expansion is still anticipated over the year.
The first quarter GDP data exaggerated the slowdown in economic activity according to Jefferson. He affirmed that the labour market remains strong, but the impact of tariffs on persistent inflation depends on various factors.
What Jefferson is drawing attention to here, in fairly measured terms, is a gradually improving picture on inflation — but one that remains fragile, especially with new pressures in the background. While the Fed is seeing better alignment with its long-term price target, any optimism there is immediately checked by external pressures that tend to push cost levels up, such as tariffs. These are not small adjustments, and while their effect may not be long-lasting, they could throw off expectations, particularly around core readings.
Importantly, his view on the current policy rate — describing it as “moderately restrictive” — suggests we should not expect sweeping interventions on short notice. This reinforces the idea that the current stance is likely to be maintained unless something shifts dramatically in the data.
Implications for Derivatives Traders
When Jefferson refers to the first quarter GDP data overstating the slowdown, what he’s likely suggesting is that seasonal or temporary factors affected the official output numbers more than actual domestic momentum did. So while surface-level indicators pointed to a sharper deceleration, underlying demand may have held up more than those figures indicated.
For us, the key takeaway isn’t only about steady rates or tariffs themselves, but about the broader volatility in reaction functions. Derivatives traders ought to widen the lens beyond just front-month contracts or headline prints. There’s a chance that short-term rate volatility remains suppressed, but pricing risk further out may warrant closer attention. Especially where policy reaction asymmetry is likely — the Fed appears disinclined to ease into near-term strength, but prepared to extend tightness if pressures re-emerge.
The strong labour market points to resilience in domestic demand, which increases the likelihood that rate-sensitive instruments do not price in cuts too early. If you’re involved in macro positioning, it would be imprudent to rely too heavily on expected disinflation being straightforward or uninterrupted.
We should be preparing for positioning around rate hold scenarios that last longer than anticipated. Interest rate derivatives that lean too heavily into pricing in policy adjustments in the upcoming quarters may be misaligned, especially if real activity stays buoyant. The market, in our view, may continue underestimating policy patience when inflation moderates for short periods but doesn’t fully embed.
Eyeing vol structures may prove worthwhile. Given the potential tug-of-war between disinflation and trade-induced cost pressures, there could be sudden readjustments in the mid-term curve. As Jackson remains cautious, traders operating around policy expectations over a 3- to 6-month horizon would do well to build in wider tolerances for data surprises.
