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VT 
Technical Overview
GBP/USD has marked a second day of losses, falling below the 1.3250 level. The pair’s price action is approaching a potential bearish challenge of the 1.3075 region.
The Pound Sterling, a key currency, accounts for 12% of global FX transactions. Its value is heavily influenced by the Bank of England’s monetary policy.
Economic indicators like GDP, PMIs, and employment can impact the pound. A positive Trade Balance strengthens the currency, while negative balance weakens it.
Market Outlook
We’ve now moved into a phase where rate differentials are playing a more active role in driving currency direction, especially for sterling. With the Bank of England’s quarter-point cut, now materialised, we’ve seen traders trim expectations for further tightening. This immediate reaction helped to knock GBP/USD lower, and correctly so. The policy shift, while largely expected, still carried weight in terms of forward guidance. Bailey and the committee are becoming more sensitive to growth risks, and that’s where it gets tricky.
The pair’s decline below the 1.3250 level, with price hovering near 1.3075, isn’t just technical noise. This zone isn’t new to seasoned FX players—it has historically acted as a testing point for trend reversals. While volatility remains contained for now, liquidity conditions could deteriorate if macro data from the UK continues to underwhelm. We don’t expect broad sterling strength unless we see a reversal in economic momentum, and currently, the data isn’t cooperating.
The US side of this equation carries weight now. Greenback strength didn’t come out of thin air. Speculation around tariff arrangements and bilateral trade arrangements added pressure, giving the dollar a leg up. The proposed US-UK trade deal, positioned to bypass the reimplementation of tariffs on certain sectors, helped drive buyers into dollar positions. Even though the lift from ethanol tariff suspensions might appear minor, they signal a broader intent to ease frictions for now—which can keep dollar demand elevated.
The bounce in the dollar weakens foreign demand for UK exports, particularly in manufacturing where even a narrow margin affects profit expectations. That’s going to show up in forward-looking PMIs, and once those prints come in, markets will adjust again. With reduced rate support and rising trade uncertainty, there’s little incentive for heavy GBP long positioning at the moment, especially near technical resistance levels.
Employment data and retail figures coming this fortnight may not give sterling the support it needs either. Wage growth is moderating, and if headline inflation continues to taper, the case for further cuts grows stronger—not great for bulls. A shift in focus towards domestic growth support has traditionally sent the pound into mild correction, and so the direction we’ve been heading isn’t an outlier.
We should be cautious around short-term rallies, especially as these can fade quickly in the current pricing environment. Thin books during the summer spell allow outsized moves, but these often retrace. For us, it doesn’t make sense to chase exaggerated upside in the pound unless US data begins to disappoint meaningfully, particularly indicators linked to consumer health and inflation persistence.
