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VT 
In April, Chinese exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year, amounting to USD 315.7 billion. This increase marks the highest level recorded for the month of April.
Despite reciprocal tariffs by the US increasing to 145% in April, there is no real slowdown in Chinese exports. Exports to the US fell by 21%, while exports to ASEAN countries and the EU grew by 20.8% and 8.3%, respectively.
Short Term Tariff Effects
It may take some time to fully understand the impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports. For now, the effects appear less severe than expected, supporting a stable foreign trade surplus.
Due to steady export growth, a depreciation of the Chinese yuan seems unlikely in the immediate future. Current trends suggest that the currency will remain stable in the coming months.
This data shows that outbound trade from China held firm in April, with exporters managing to deliver the highest values on record for that month. Despite tariffs from Washington climbing sharply to more than double their prior levels, the overall performance from Beijing’s side remains solid. Even though shipments across the Pacific dropped by over a fifth, trade redirected effectively, particularly towards neighbours in Southeast Asia and partners in the EU. That divergence highlights agile repositioning by Chinese exporters rather than softening global demand.
The market had widely anticipated harsher fallout following the tariff revisions, but that hasn’t materialised—at least not at the aggregate level. Instead, companies supplied alternative destinations almost seamlessly, helping to smooth out external pressures. A 21% decline in exports to the US is clearly not negligible, but it does appear confined for now. Gains of nearly 21% to ASEAN countries filled much of the gap, bolstered by regional coordination and reduced logistical frictions. The EU’s absorption of more goods—up by over 8%—has also played a supportive role.
Currency Stability and Trade Implications
For those of us watching cross-border flows and currency implications, the tight performance in trade balances should temper expectations of any short-term moves on the yuan. The renminbi remains well-anchored, helped along by a resilient goods surplus and improved trading channels in Asia. There’s little traction for speculation around further easing through depreciation, at least while trade accounts stay buoyant.
That means expectations for volatility in regional forex pairs need to be lowered somewhat through the early summer. Currency-driven hedges might not yield as much as hoped, at least not from this front. Near-term valuations are being shaped more by structural trading data than tactical manoeuvres, limiting opportunities unless triggered by external policy surprises or commodity price swings.
Huang’s data gives us enough to recalibrate positioning, especially at the front end of the curve. With trade resilience holding, macroeconomic hedging may overshoot near-term realities. Opportunities in spreads may therefore make more sense than outright directional moves in this phase. Especially with the yuan largely boxed in, we might need to focus positioning around carry strategies tied to stability, not volatility.
This shift in trade dynamics suggests that geographic reallocation of volumes remains a viable adjustment for Chinese industry, regardless of headline tariff threats. So for now, cross-border positions linked to consumption cycles—particularly in ASEAN exporters—may require less defensive handling. Any protectionism from US policymakers appears increasingly isolated in its impact, at least in the short run.
