{"id":22348,"date":"2025-05-15T07:23:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T07:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=22348"},"modified":"2025-05-15T07:23:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T07:23:38","slug":"oil-falls-as-u-s-iran-deal-speculation-risks-appetite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/analysis\/oil-falls-as-u-s-iran-deal-speculation-risks-appetite\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Falls as U.S.-Iran Deal Speculation Risks Appetite"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/oil3-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17014\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>U.S. crude (WTI) drops 2.13% to $61.06, marking a steep pullback from a recent high of $63.88.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Speculation around a renewed U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement triggers concerns over increased global oil supply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices sank sharply on Thursday, with U.S. crude (WTI) closing 2.13% lower at $61.06 per barrel, pressured by market chatter around a possible nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran. Traders reacted to growing expectations that such an agreement could eventually lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports, increasing global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Washington\u2019s sanctioning of a Singapore-based oil-services company has sent ripples through the local trading community, while renewing a focus on the clandestine supply chain that moves Iranian oil to China. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YaS5YYhXFB\">https:\/\/t.co\/YaS5YYhXFB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1922860204095414707?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 15, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The sell-off in crude comes after a multi-day rally powered by a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/K8rbLyFalu\">90-day tariff truce<\/a> between the U.S. and China. While that announcement initially stoked hopes of a demand rebound, the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KliWWNsJnO\">mood across global markets has since soured<\/a>. IG\u2019s Tony Sycamore likened the reversal to a hangover following a \u201chuge party,\u201d with investors now showing caution as macro risks reassert themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to oil\u2019s headwinds are comments from President Donald Trump regarding a debt-laden federal budget and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. growth. The <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/o32pB1rcxa\">10-year U.S. Treasury yield<\/a> hit a one-month high, amplifying investor concerns about borrowing costs and debt levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market sentiment was further dampened by declines in major equity indices across Asia and Europe. Japan\u2019s Nikkei dropped 0.85%, while China\u2019s CSI300 shed 0.63%. U.S. futures also pointed lower, with the broader mood turning defensive ahead of retail sales data and earnings from Walmart\u2014both seen as gauges of consumer health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have extended their <strong>downward correction<\/strong>, with <strong>CL-OIL-ECN<\/strong> dropping sharply from <strong>$63.88<\/strong> to a session low of <strong>$60.95<\/strong>, marking a two-day slide of over <strong>4.5%<\/strong>. The chart shows a sustained break below the <strong>5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages<\/strong>, reinforcing a bearish short-term trend. The selling pressure intensified as price breached prior support near <strong>$62.00<\/strong>, with weak buying interest evident on the recovery attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/image-14-1024x444.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22349\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Oil tumbles to $60.95 as bearish momentum deepens, with short-term pressure persisting below $62 resistance, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> remains in negative territory, though histogram bars are flattening out slightly, suggesting the pace of decline may be slowing. However, with no clear bullish crossover yet and price action still hugging lower lows, further downside risk remains unless buyers reclaim the <strong>$61.50\u2013$62.00<\/strong> range. For now, the path of least resistance points lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil is likely to remain volatile as traders weigh geopolitical headlines and central bank commentary. A confirmed <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/G7V5LzrD97\">U.S.-Iran breakthrough<\/a> would likely pressure prices further toward the $60 support zone. However, if talks stall or risk sentiment rebounds on dovish Fed commentary, a bounce toward $62.50\u2013$63.00 remains plausible. The near-term outlook hinges heavily on today\u2019s retail sales print and Powell\u2019s tone in his scheduled remarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude retreats over 2% as nuclear deal hopes weigh on prices; traders eye U.S. data and Powell speech. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[34],"class_list":["post-22348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}