{"id":15704,"date":"2024-11-08T06:05:40","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=15704"},"modified":"2024-11-08T06:05:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:05:40","slug":"oil-dips-as-market-awaits-trumps-policy-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/analysis\/oil-dips-as-market-awaits-trumps-policy-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Dips as Market Awaits Trump\u2019s Policy Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Listen to the article here:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/15704.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent crude fell 0.6% to $75.16 per barrel; WTI dipped 0.8% to $71.81, despite weekly gains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market cautious on potential Trump administration policies that may restrict Iranian and Venezuelan oil supplies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices saw a modest decline on Friday, with Brent crude futures slipping by 0.6% to $75.16 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling 0.8% to $71.81.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil prices fall as Hurricane Rafael expected to start weakening <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sFliDEzNyX\">https:\/\/t.co\/sFliDEzNyX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xbnqBz5ckR\">pic.twitter.com\/xbnqBz5ckR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1854757024099090867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This slight dip follows nearly 1% gains on Thursday, as traders closely monitor developments in the Gulf of Mexico and potential policy shifts from President-elect Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-20-1024x440.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15706\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Crude oil prices stall near resistance at $72.85, as momentum shows signs of waning amid mixed signals, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see a brief rally to the resistance level around 72.853, but prices began to consolidate and retrace slightly, settling around the 71.923 area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 5, 10, and 30-period moving averages indicate a recent bullish push, though they are starting to converge, suggesting possible short-term indecision or consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Hurricane Rafael\u2019s Reduced Impact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hurricane Rafael initially caused a shutdown of 391,214 barrels per day in U.S. crude production, sparking <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NOBTmjOHJW\">concerns over potential disruptions<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the hurricane is now expected to weaken over the weekend as it drifts westward away from critical oil fields, reducing its threat to U.S. oil output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Hurricane Center\u2019s forecast indicates a declining impact on production, leading to some easing in oil prices as traders adjust their expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Trump\u2019s Policies and Potential Supply Constraints<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While the hurricane\u2019s impact appears limited, market participants are focused on the policy direction under the incoming Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expected actions, such as <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NdirXKtc8z\">tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela<\/a><\/strong>, could potentially restrict oil supplies from these countries, supporting higher prices in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although such sanctions would likely be implemented gradually, they could create supply constraints that might influence global oil balances if enforced rigorously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>See also: <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/oil-dips-ahead-of-us-election-and-china-npc\/\">Oil Dips Ahead of US Election and China NPC<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, noted in its analysis that while Trump\u2019s rhetoric may suggest an aggressive stance, institutional constraints and moderate advisors may temper any drastic policy shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMI\u2019s outlook anticipates a relatively pragmatic approach, with any direct impact on oil fundamentals likely to be limited through 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Downward Pressure from Chinese Imports and U.S. Inventory Builds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to the downward pressure, China, the world\u2019s largest oil importer, reported a 9% drop in crude imports in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year declines. This trend raises questions about <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ligyhSXG9i\">demand strength from a key market<\/a><\/strong> and could weigh on global oil prices if it persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, U.S. crude inventories rose, further pressuring prices as concerns about near-term demand continue. Traders will likely remain cautious, balancing expectations of tighter supply due to potential U.S. sanctions with the mixed signals from demand and inventory data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market is set to navigate a complex environment where supply risks and geopolitical shifts will play pivotal roles in shaping near-term price movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\">here<\/a><\/strong><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices slip as traders weigh potential supply impacts from the Trump administration\u2019s policy direction. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[44,34],"class_list":["post-15704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15704\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}