{"id":15646,"date":"2024-11-05T03:32:29","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T03:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=15646"},"modified":"2024-11-05T03:32:29","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T03:32:29","slug":"dollar-dips-with-global-central-bank-outlooks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/analysis\/dollar-dips-with-global-central-bank-outlooks\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Dips With Global Central Bank Outlooks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Listen to the article here:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/15646.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dollar index fell to 103.67, near its lowest level since October 21, as traders brace for potential shifts tied to U.S. election results.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implied volatility spiked for major currency pairs, reflecting election-driven uncertainty and upcoming central bank meetings in the U.S., U.K., and Australia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar started defensively on Tuesday as traders reassessed positions on the day of the U.S. presidential election. Recent polling has complicated market expectations, showing a tighter-than-anticipated race and raising the odds of a Kamala Harris victory, with traders on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened as investors reduced bets on a Trump win in the US election: Here&#39;s Your Evening Briefing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AWLMxAs0AU\">https:\/\/t.co\/AWLMxAs0AU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1853497976250872224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 4, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The index tested resistance around the 103.80 level, and the most recent high point was 104.24 before a drop towards 103.47. This pullback suggests a lack of strong buying momentum, with traders likely cautious about the next significant move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-8-1024x448.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15648\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: The USDX moving averages converging and MACD indicates limited momentum, suggesting cautious trading ahead, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders anticipate that a Harris win could soften the dollar by 1%-2% in the short term as her policies are likely to return the focus to macroeconomic fundamentals, contrasting with Trump\u2019s inflationary tariff strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d9cbDo6TnQ\" title=\"\"><strong>Against the yen<\/strong><\/a>, the dollar was at 152.325, bouncing back from an overnight dip to 151.54, a one-week low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, suggested that \u201cfinancial markets appear positioned for a Harris win, which could lead to <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/onsLL4Gt3F\" title=\"\"><strong>modest dollar weakening<\/strong><\/a> if she secures the victory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts expect that further complications, such as contested vote counts, would add to volatility, potentially delaying the dollar\u2019s recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Central Banks to Reveal Next Steps in Rate Policies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the interest rate front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, with further insights into whether additional cuts will proceed in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This decision comes on the heels of a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i8N3S9JiMg\" title=\"\"><strong>softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report<\/strong><\/a>, which raised questions about underlying labour market health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/market_analysis\/week-ahead-disappointing-jobs-data-prefaces-us-election\/\">Week Ahead: Disappointing Jobs Data Prefaces US Election<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bank of England and Sweden\u2019s Riksbank are also set to adjust rates this week, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point cut from the BoE and a more substantial 50-basis-point reduction from the Riksbank. The Norges Bank, however, is expected to hold steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This complex landscape reflects how political and economic factors are intertwined, with market participants watching closely for any signal from central banks and political outcomes to refine their currency positioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar dipped against rising odds for Kamala Harris and anticipation of central bank rate decisions worldwide. &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[28,12],"class_list":["post-15646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-forex"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15646\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}