{"id":15617,"date":"2024-11-04T02:42:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T02:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=15617"},"modified":"2024-11-04T02:42:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T02:42:27","slug":"dollar-dips-on-uncertain-us-election-possible-fed-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/analysis\/dollar-dips-on-uncertain-us-election-possible-fed-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Dips on Uncertain US Election, Possible Fed Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Listen to the article here:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/15617.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dollar down early as traders assess election probabilities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed and BoE priced to cut by 25 bps, Riksbank by 50 bps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China may announce fiscal stimulus measures this week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday, setting the stage for a week that could reshape the global economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the U.S. presidential election underway and interest rate decisions expected from multiple central banks, traders are bracing for potential market volatility and shifts in bond yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876, approaching resistance at $1.0905, while the dollar fell 0.3% against the yen to 152.45 yen. The dollar index eased 0.3% to 103.94, signalling mixed sentiment as markets weigh election outcomes and potential policy changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-4-1024x462.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15618\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>See: EUR\/USD is stabilising near 1.0886 after a recent downtrend, with MACD hinting at potential reversal as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Tight Race Adds Uncertainty for Dollar and Yield<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polling shows a tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican incumbent Donald Trump, with a possible delay in confirming the winner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many traders believe Trump\u2019s policy focus on tax cuts, tariffs, and reduced regulation could drive inflation and bond yields higher, strengthening the dollar. Conversely, Harris is viewed as a candidate more likely to maintain current policies, keeping pressure on bond yields steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A Trump victory could mean sweeping US tariffs, with a 10% levy on EU imports and 60% on Chinese goods.<br><br>Analysts warn this protectionism may strengthen the dollar, pressure the euro, and prompt the ECB to consider rate cuts to counter growth impacts.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Cj5LUcXdDm\">https:\/\/t.co\/Cj5LUcXdDm<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WsPG9FOwCJ\">pic.twitter.com\/WsPG9FOwCJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; euronews (@euronews) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/euronews\/status\/1850867150107312323?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 28, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants noted that a recent poll showing Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa\u2014supported largely by female voters\u2014might explain the dollar\u2019s early dip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Fed Eyes Smaller Rate Cut as Election Uncertainty Looms<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uncertainty around the election outcome could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday rather than the larger 50 basis point cut seen in prior months. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point reduction to 4.50%-4.75%, with an 83% likelihood of another cut in December.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/asian-markets-brace-for-u-s-data\/\">Asian Markets Brace for U.S. Data<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding to the potential market shake-up, China\u2019s National People\u2019s Congress (NPC) convenes this week and may announce further stimulus to boost its economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reports suggest Beijing is considering approving over 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) in extra debt issuance over the coming years, which could provide a lifeline to a sluggish economic landscape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders globally will keep a close eye on developments from the NPC, as any substantial stimulus announcement could impact commodity prices and global risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday, setting the stage for a week that could reshape the global economy. &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[28,12],"class_list":["post-15617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-forex"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15617\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}