{"id":15529,"date":"2024-10-28T10:03:31","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T10:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=15529"},"modified":"2024-10-28T10:03:31","modified_gmt":"2024-10-28T10:03:31","slug":"soybean-slides-on-oversupply-election-worries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/analysis\/soybean-slides-on-oversupply-election-worries\/","title":{"rendered":"Soybean Slides on Oversupply, Election Worries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Soybean and corn prices are weighed down by record global supply, with ample US and South American harvests adding pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wheat futures are hit by improved US weather conditions and forecasts of bumper southern hemisphere crops.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Soybean, corn, and wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade declined on Monday, with the mounting supply from US harvests continuing to pressure the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most active soybean contract slipped by 0.7%, trading at $9.90-3\/4 a bushel, while corn edged down 0.4% to $4.13-1\/2 a bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-58-1024x446.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15530\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Soybean futures hover near support at 9.765, with slight MACD optimism hinting at potential buying interest, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Soybean Futures chart shows a generally downward trend, with prices struggling to gain traction above the moving averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent activity suggests that the 9.765 level acts as a short-term floor, as prices have bounced off this point, leading to a period of consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the downward-sloping moving averages indicate the sellers are still in control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wheat futures followed the downtrend, losing 0.8% to $5.64-1\/4 a bushel and marking a seven-week low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The global grain market is currently characterised by robust supply levels and heightened uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">China heads for record 2024 grain harvest of 700 mln T <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sjoUSbOgch\">https:\/\/t.co\/sjoUSbOgch<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nOpynWvtFD\">pic.twitter.com\/nOpynWvtFD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1849716298021847497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 25, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, favourable weather in South America continues to support planting activities, which could further increase future supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For wheat, recent rains in the drought-affected US Plains and more wet weather forecasts have eased concerns over planting delays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This, coupled with expectations of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/russias-putin-outlines-brics-grain-exchange-proposal-2024-10-23\/\" title=\"\"><strong>record exports from the southern hemisphere<\/strong><\/a>, has added downward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rosario Grains Exchange projects Argentina\u2019s wheat exports to reach 13.3 million metric tons for the 2024-25 season, the second-highest level in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia is also on track for an above-average wheat yield, despite recent adverse weather impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soybean and corn prices have felt particular pressure as the US harvest progresses rapidly, contributing to global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although demand provided some support last week, the market continues to adjust to these supply pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Commodity Futures Trading Commission\u2019s latest report shows that non-commercial traders increased their net short positions in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/funds-ideas-cbot-corn-diverge-amid-futures-rally-2024-10-28\/\" title=\"\"><strong>CBOT wheat and soybeans<\/strong><\/a>, a trend that reflects continued bearish sentiment in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Energy Market Impact<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A weakened energy market has also influenced grain prices, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/oil-slips-nearly-4-barrel-after-israel-shows-restraint-strikes-iran-2024-10-27\/\" title=\"\"><strong>with oil prices dropping<\/strong><\/a> by over $3 per barrel. This decline followed Israel\u2019s retaliatory action over the weekend, which notably avoided impacting Tehran\u2019s oil or nuclear infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The resulting stability in oil markets has further eased immediate geopolitical concerns, particularly in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/oil-edges-higher-with-ceasefire-talks\/\">Oil Climbs with Middle East Ceasefire Talks<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With grain and oilseed markets often influenced by energy price trends, this easing of tensions has dampened demand for biofuel-linked crops like soybeans and corn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Election Uncertainty and Market Volatility<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With less than two weeks to go until the US presidential election, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/global-economy-chiefs-fret-over-trump-return-us-election-draws-closer-2024-10-28\/\" title=\"\"><strong>tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris<\/strong><\/a> in key swing states has left investors on edge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A contested result remains a possibility, raising the prospect of heightened market volatility. Historically, election periods have amplified uncertainty in commodities markets, and traders are likely to remain cautious as Election Day approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market will likely keep a close watch on developments, with any indication of election delays or contestations potentially exacerbating volatility in grain prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\">here<\/a><\/strong><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Grain markets struggle with oversupply concerns and potential election volatility as US soybean, corn, and wheat futures face downward pressure. &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-15529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.global-vtrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}