Insights 
The USDCAD currency pair has surpassed the 1.4000 mark for the first time since April, reaching a peak of 1.40043. The next resistance uptrend targets are the 200-day moving average at 1.40106 and a swing high at 1.40268. The 38.2% retracement level from the March high is positioned at 1.40525, which acts as a barrier for further gains.
Earlier price declines found support around 1.3977, corresponding with the swing high from April 15. This area of backing allowed buyers to regain some control and encouraged movement beyond 1.4000. However, sustained momentum above 1.4000 is necessary to strengthen buyer control.
Key Levels for An Upward Trend
For a definitive upward trend, a consistent movement beyond the 200-day moving average and the 1.40525 retracement level is required. The current momentum still favours the buyers, with these levels as targets for further growth.
The current movement in the USDCAD pair has pushed beyond a level not seen since mid-April, briefly touching 1.40043—crossing a psychological threshold that many participants have likely been eyeing for weeks. Price has entered a narrow region where historical levels are quickly clustering. Short-term technical resistance now sits just above, with the 200-day moving average looming close at 1.40106, and a prior swing point completing the zone at 1.40268. There’s little room for uncertainty here—these zones are acting like shelves that price must either glide over swiftly or be knocked down from.
From a broader perspective, if price manages to maintain traction above 1.4000, our attention naturally shifts toward the 38.2% retracement from the March move, up at 1.40525. It’s a level that doesn’t just appear on the chart—it tells us about the extent of participation from earlier downtrend sellers. Their presence becomes critical here, as failure to clear 1.40525 would indicate that supply is regenerating.
Watch for Sustained Commitment
Support has been predictable so far, with a rebound from 1.3977 corresponding nicely with the April 15 swing high. The bounce wasn’t just technical—it carried conviction, enough to drag the pair back above 1.4000. From where we’re sitting, that shows that late buyers aren’t entirely dragging the movement, and deeper flows are likely still involved.
That said, the next phase in tactical positioning will rest on whether the pair can close above those technical resistance levels for more than just a few sessions. We should be watching for confirmation on daily candles, paired with volume, before considering a push higher to be reinforced. A single intraday break above 1.40525 doesn’t count—there needs to be evidence of sustained commitment.
From a short-term positioning angle, risk-reward looks thinner now for aggressive long entries until that resistance area either cracks or prices begin consolidating. We’re entering a congested zone where one mishandled data release or sharp repricing in rate expectations could send things moving sharply the other way. Sellers are likely to lie in wait between 1.4010 and 1.4050, prepared to test how firmly committed the current buyers really are.
Let’s also not forget that hesitation near the 200-day mark, followed by a rejection, would attract profit-taking. We prefer to think in terms of moves making sense technically and matching broader flows. Right now, that’s still leaning upward, but the path ahead isn’t unlimited. For now, the chart isn’t ambiguous; it’s just tight. We look for price behaviour around resistance before taking firm directional views.
