Insights 
Today’s market attention centres on the initial jobless claims report and Q1 productivity data. However, another key report is the March wholesale inventory data.
Analysts predict a 0.5% increase in wholesale inventories, but there is hope for a higher figure or an upward revision of February’s data. The US GDP recently declined due to a surge in imports.
Imports and Inventory Discrepancy
These imports have not yet reflected in inventory figures, despite evidence suggesting substantial imports of metal products. This includes imports equivalent to two years of metal products ahead of impending steel and aluminium tariffs.
That said, we must not overlook the data we already have. The recent GDP print, which came in softer than expected, was weighed down by an uptick in imports. This wasn’t a subtle shift. We’re talking about a clear bump in goods flowing into the country, notably in the metals category. What’s striking is that these inbound shipments—by volume, comparable to two full years’ worth of demand—have not yet trickled into the inventory numbers. Not in any meaningful way, anyway.
Keen observation informs us this could point to either delayed reporting—arguably due to port backlogs or warehousing constraints—or a miscount in stockpiling categories. Hence the anticipation surrounding today’s wholesale inventory data. If the imports were front-loaded by distributors hedging against tariff hikes, we’ll start to see evidence of this in higher inventory stockpiles over the next one to two months. That is, assuming the reporting aligns with receipt rather than order.
Now, when we say there’s hope for an upward revision to February’s data, we’re talking about a direct reflection of those goods entering the stream. A lag is expected, but corrections to previous months would imply the impact is already underway. If wholesale inventories ramp faster than expected, it could temper future import growth—something often factored into forward GDP models. So revisions here matter.
Jobless Claims and Productivity Impact
Separately, we also have the jobless claims and productivity figures to contend with. Initial claims are widely seen as a barometer for labour market tightness. A downside surprise—fewer claims than expected—would likely prompt updates to hiring and wage growth assumptions. That, in turn, feeds into pricing pressures and eventually interest rate expectations.
Productivity data, on the other hand, gives us a window into cost pressures at the business level. A strong productivity gain could offset wage increases, hinting at more sustainable margins. But if productivity falls short again, it could squeeze profit expectations and thereby influence risk appetite.
From where we stand, it’s clear that each data point today is more than just a snapshot. We treat them as directional signals. Not in isolation, mind, but rather as positioning cues, especially when the bond curve is already pricing in differing rate paths for the second half of the year.
With all this in context, pricing volatility in short-dated options is likely to remain high. Recent moves have been swift, particularly in rates-sensitive assets. The tendency for implied volatility to rise around heavy data days remains a reliable pattern. Some of us may consider leveraging this setup to scale into directional moves post-data. But only where the skew suggests mispricing or where convexity can be captured without paying up.
Also, keep an eye on the metals complex. The kind of bulk buying we’ve noted rarely happens without eventual pricing consequences, either in terms of commodity prices or forced margin movements once inventories settle. That may not be visible today or tomorrow, but it’s coming through the pipe.
In the short run, expressions on the data should be skewed to avoid whipsaw—especially before full inventory confirmation. Be deliberate in strikes, opt for short windows where positioning is thin and reaction probability is high. Use gamma where premium allows, and limit strategies where it doesn’t. There’s more information in the revision column of a data release than some might expect—act accordingly.
