US President Donald Trump told NBC News on Monday that he did not want to discuss whether the United States should seize Iranian oil. He said it was too soon to talk about it, but added that “certainly people have talked about it”. Asked whether Congress would approve a bill, Trump said: “I don’t know.” He also referred to a bill to tighten voting requirements, saying: “Nobody is doing much on it,” and “until they do, I’m not doing anything”.

Market Risk Premium Stays Elevated

In a separate phone interview with CBS, Trump said the Iran war could be over soon. He said: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” and added claims that Iran has “no navy, no communications” and “no Air Force”. On Iran’s new Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Trump told CBS News: “I have no message for him.” Trump also told Al Arabiya that controlling Iran’s oil could strain US relations with China. Looking back at the statements from 2025, the idea of seizing Iranian oil, even if just talk, established a new level of geopolitical risk for the market. That underlying threat has helped keep a floor under crude prices over the last year. As of this week in March 2026, with Brent crude hovering around $95 a barrel, that risk premium is still very much a factor in our daily trading. The most direct impact for us is the elevated implied volatility in the oil markets. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has been stubbornly high, trading near 45 for weeks, which is significantly above its five-year average of 35. This makes buying options for protection or speculation expensive, but it presents opportunities for those willing to sell volatility if they believe the situation will remain stable in the short term.

China Supply Shock Watch

We must also pay close attention to the mention of China, which has become even more relevant today. In early 2026, China is importing record amounts of sanctioned crude, and any US action that disrupts this flow would have an immediate and dramatic impact on global supply. Recent satellite data showing a 5% increase in China’s strategic petroleum reserves over the past quarter indicates they are actively hedging against this very possibility. The assessment in 2025 that the war was “complete” has not translated into secure energy transit. We are still seeing commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down nearly 15% from pre-conflict levels, according to the latest maritime data. This lingering disruption suggests that any unexpected escalation could quickly send prices past the $100 mark, rewarding those with long positions in crude futures. The comments about it being “too soon” and Congress not acting on any bills now appear to be part of a strategy of deliberate ambiguity. This lack of a clear policy direction is what continues to fuel uncertainty and prevents oil prices from falling significantly. For the coming weeks, we should treat any statements from Washington regarding Iran not as noise, but as the primary catalyst for the market’s next major move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account