Rio Tinto is a global mining and metals company producing iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium. The focus here is a daily chart pattern rather than company fundamentals. An up-sloping trendline has been in place since mid-2024 and has formed a series of higher lows for nearly a year. Price has pulled back to this rising support and rebounded on three occasions: in the autumn, in early 2026, and again this week.

Rising Trendline Support

After the latest pullback, the share price touched the trendline and moved back up towards $94.45. The repeated tests of the same support line are presented as evidence of demand at that level. The main resistance level referenced is $98.06. Price previously reached $98.06 and then fell back to the trendline, marking $98.06 as an overhead ceiling. The next point to watch is whether the price can achieve a confirmed daily close above $98.06. A confirmed daily close below the rising trendline would shift attention to the $84 to $85 zone. Given the technical setup in Rio Tinto, the rising trendline that has held since mid-2024 is our primary guide. This structure points to consistent demand, which we just saw reconfirmed with the latest bounce. For traders, this creates a clear bullish bias as long as the price remains above this line on a daily closing basis.

Options Strategy And Risk Levels

To play the expected move toward the $98.06 resistance, we are looking at buying call options. Specifically, contracts expiring in May or June 2026 offer a good balance of time and leverage. This strategy allows us to capitalize on the upward momentum while defining our maximum risk to the premium paid. This technical strength is supported by fundamentals, as iron ore prices have stabilized above $110 per tonne on renewed industrial demand from China. We’ve also seen China’s official manufacturing PMI for March 2026 come in at 50.8, marking the first expansion in six months and boosting sentiment for industrial metals. Strong copper demand from the global energy transition provides an additional tailwind for the sector. If RIO achieves a confirmed daily close above the $98.06 ceiling, it signals a potential breakout to fresh highs. In that scenario, we would consider rolling current call positions up and out or initiating new bull call spreads to target the next leg up. Looking back at the stock’s performance in 2025, we saw that once key resistance levels were broken, momentum often followed for several weeks. The bearish case becomes relevant only with a confirmed daily close below that critical rising trendline. Such a break would invalidate the bullish structure and be our signal to switch tactics, likely by purchasing puts targeting the $84 to $85 support zone. This plan protects us from holding a bullish position if the underlying demand pattern fails. For now, the chart’s structure is our map, and the trendline is the floor we are standing on. Implied volatility will likely rise as the price approaches either the trendline or the $98.06 resistance level, making options more expensive. Therefore, establishing a position while the stock consolidates after its recent bounce could be advantageous. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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