ING has raised its EUR/USD year-end projection to 1.18 and continues to look for moderate US Dollar depreciation through the third and fourth quarters. The bank links the move to a dovish Federal Reserve stance versus market pricing and a reduced transmission from energy into FX. Its short-term valuation framework places fair value around 1.160, while the team sees the market defending levels above 1.140.
In its broader scenario set covering oil, gas, inflation and rates in the US and the eurozone, ING expects Brent to remain below $90/bbl in the third quarter after what it describes as an overdone selloff. Elsewhere in Europe, it referenced two rate holds in Switzerland and Norway, and forecasts the Swiss National Bank to keep rates at 0.0% for at least another two years. The bank also expects a 25bp Norges Bank rate hike in August.
Euro Outlook Driven By Fed Policy And Inflation Trends
We see a path for the Euro to strengthen against the Dollar, targeting 1.18 by the end of the year. The current EUR/USD rate is hovering around 1.1450, presenting an opportunity based on our view. This forecast is driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive on interest rates than the market currently anticipates.
The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index data showed inflation cooling to 2.8% year-over-year, supporting our belief that the Fed will hold rates steady. However, derivative markets, as seen in the CME FedWatch Tool, are still pricing in a roughly 40% chance of one more rate hike this year. This difference between our view and market pricing is where the opportunity lies.
Trading Strategies Amid Lower Volatility And Key Levels
Given this outlook for a moderate and steady climb, traders should consider strategies that benefit from a rising Euro. Buying EUR/USD call options with strike prices around 1.1600 for the third and fourth quarters seems appropriate. A bull call spread could also be used to lower the upfront cost, reflecting the expected moderate pace of appreciation.
The risk from energy prices, which caused significant volatility in 2025, appears to be fading. With Brent crude stable around $85 per barrel, well below the $90 threshold, the market’s focus is shifting squarely to interest rate differentials. This lower volatility environment makes option-based strategies more attractive.
We are confident that Euro bulls will defend the 1.1400 level, making it a key support floor. Therefore, selling out-of-the-money puts with strikes below 1.1400 could be a viable strategy to collect premium. This aligns with our view that while the upside is moderate, the downside is well-protected for now.
