ICE Brent rose after renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf increased concern about oil supply disruption. ING said prices jumped 5.8% to settle above $114 per barrel.
The article says the ceasefire between the US and Iran showed signs of weakening, with the US striking a number of Iranian boats. It also reports that Iran resumed attacks on infrastructure in neighbouring countries.
Supply Risks Push Brent Higher
The UAE intercepted several Iranian missiles, and Fujairah port was hit by a drone. Fujairah is outside the Strait of Hormuz, which allowed UAE oil exports to continue and increase despite the war and blockade of the Strait.
The US has started guiding commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”. Two US-flagged commercial vessels have passed through the strait under the plan, according to the US.
The article notes comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict could continue for another two to three weeks. It also states the piece was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
We are seeing a familiar pattern of supply risk pricing into Brent crude, much like the tensions we saw back in 2025. The current geopolitical flare-up has pushed front-month Brent futures above $95/bbl, as the market is clearly sensitive to any potential disruption. This situation echoes the surge to $114/bbl when similar US-Iranian naval incidents occurred previously.
Trading Approaches For Higher Volatility
The market’s foundation is already tight, making it more reactive to these headlines. Recent EIA data showed a surprise crude inventory drawdown of 3.1 million barrels, leaving little cushion for supply shocks. We remember how attacks on UAE infrastructure in 2025, specifically the Fujairairah port, highlighted the vulnerability of export routes even outside the Strait of Hormuz.
For traders, this surge in uncertainty points toward buying protection against further price spikes. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has already jumped to a six-month high of 42, suggesting options premiums are rising fast. Consequently, outright long positions in near-term call options on Brent futures could prove effective in capturing any continued upward momentum.
A more risk-defined strategy would be to use bull call spreads. This allows traders to capitalize on a potential move higher while capping the initial cost, a prudent approach given how quickly diplomatic statements can reverse market sentiment. We saw this in 2025 when official comments about a short conflict timeline were met with market skepticism, causing whipsaw price action.
Looking ahead, we must monitor flows through the Strait of Hormuz and any changes in shipping insurance. War risk premiums for tankers in the region have reportedly doubled in the last week. This is a real-time indicator of perceived risk and will be a key factor driving oil prices in the coming weeks.
