US EIA data for 10 April showed a crude oil stocks change of -0.913 million. The market expectation was a rise of 0.2 million.
The result indicates stocks fell rather than increased. The reported figure was 1.113 million barrels lower than the expected change.
The recent EIA report showing a surprise draw of over 900,000 barrels, when a build was expected, is a clear bullish signal for crude oil. This indicates that underlying demand is running hotter than analysts had predicted. We should therefore view any short-term price dips as potential buying opportunities.
This demand picture is reinforced by broader economic data. We are seeing US gasoline demand climb to 9.2 million barrels per day, a high for this year, as we head toward the summer driving season. This is complemented by strong global signals, such as China’s latest manufacturing PMI which came in at 51.5, showing continued economic expansion.
On the supply side, the market remains tight due to disciplined production cuts from key producers. OPEC+ compliance with its quotas was recently reported at over 110% for March, effectively removing excess barrels from the market. This disciplined approach provides a solid floor for prices, making a significant downturn less likely.
This setup is reminiscent of what we saw in the second quarter of 2025. During that period, a series of unexpected inventory draws in the spring led to a sustained rally that caught many bearish traders off guard. We should be prepared for a similar pattern to unfold this year if these inventory draws continue.
Given this outlook, we should consider positioning for upward price movement through call options or bull call spreads on WTI and Brent futures. The surprise draw has likely increased short-term implied volatility, so selling cash-secured puts on price dips could also be an effective strategy. This allows us to benefit from both rising prices and potentially elevated volatility.
