Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.9% in April. This was up from 5.2% in the previous reading.
The change was an increase of 0.7 percentage points. The figures compare April with the prior month’s result.
Inflation Expectations Jump In April
The recent jump in consumer inflation expectations to 5.9% is a significant signal for us. This sharp increase indicates that inflationary pressures may be re-anchoring at a higher level, making the Reserve Bank of Australia’s task much more difficult. We believe this all but removes the possibility of a rate cut this year and instead brings a potential rate hike back into consideration.
This shift in expectations is already being reflected in the interest rate markets. We are now seeing a greater than 40% probability of an RBA rate hike by August being priced in, a dramatic change from just a few weeks ago. Australian two-year government bond yields have consequently surged to 4.45%, their highest point since late 2025.
Given this, traders should prepare for increased volatility in short-term interest rate futures. We think positioning for higher yields is the prudent move, which could involve buying put options on bond futures to protect against falling bond prices. This environment mirrors what we observed back in 2024, when sticky services inflation data forced the RBA into a surprise hike after a prolonged pause.
A more hawkish RBA will likely provide a strong tailwind for the Australian dollar. The AUD/USD has already climbed to 0.6820 this week as the interest rate differential with the United States is expected to narrow. We see further upside for the currency in the coming weeks if upcoming official CPI data confirms this trend of persistent inflation.
