US shares ended higher on Monday after trading lower earlier in the day, then turning up following comments from President Donald Trump. He told CBS News reporter Weijia Jiang that the war he launched with Israel against Iran is “very complete”.
The remarks spread online, and at about 3:20pm EST stocks rose sharply. After falling as much as 1.46%, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.38%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the S&P 500 rose 0.83%.
Oil prices also moved quickly during the session. WTI crude fell 7.7% to below $84 a barrel after reaching a four-year high above $119 late Sunday night.
No official statement was cited indicating that Iran is ready to enter talks. The report also referred to earlier comments attributed to Iranian officials rejecting a ceasefire that would allow the US and Israel to regroup, and it claimed Iran has spent the past ten days disrupting radar systems used by Israel, the US, and Arab allies.
Looking back to late 2025, the sharp drop in implied volatility was the most immediate signal for traders. We remember the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling from over 40 to the low 20s in a matter of days on those peace whispers. This suggests that in the coming weeks, selling expensive options premium, particularly far out-of-the-money puts on the S&P 500, could be a viable strategy if this calm holds.
The collapse in WTI crude from over $119 to below $84 was a clear reaction to de-escalation hopes. With oil now hovering in the low $80s and recent EIA data showing a surprise inventory build, bearish positions using put options or put spreads on crude futures seem prudent. However, any renewed conflict headline from the Strait of Hormuz could cause a violent reversal, making tight stop-losses essential.
That relief rally in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 was significant, but it was built on a single optimistic comment. Given that a formal ceasefire never fully materialized in the months that followed, we should consider this a fragile peace. Therefore, traders should look to protect long equity positions by buying protective puts or structuring collars on major indices like the SPX.
We must remember the market’s surge was based on a hint, not a confirmed treaty with Iran. This lingering uncertainty has been reflected in defense sector stocks, which have underperformed the broader market by about 5% since the start of 2026. This suggests that call options on consumer-focused ETFs could outperform puts on defense contractor ETFs if the geopolitical situation remains quiet.
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