Insights 
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President, Mary Daly, will participate in a fireside chat at 2140 GMT during the California Bankers Association’s annual event. This appearance is set to take place before the American audience at 1740 US Eastern Time.
Australia’s employment report for April is scheduled, despite it being early in the month for such data. Expectations suggest moderate job growth, with the unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged.
No major impact on the Australian dollar is predicted, unless unexpected results arise. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia plans a 25bp cash rate cut in their upcoming meeting on May 19-20.
Asian Economic Calendar for May 15 2025
The Asian economic calendar for 15 May 2025 lists events in GMT, alongside previous results and consensus median expectations, where available.
The upcoming remarks from Daly are drawing close attention due to their placement within a broader, more cautious backdrop the U.S. central bank has maintained. Her perspectives, as shared in these forums, tend to offer nuanced insight on both employment dynamics and current monetary pressures, often giving voice to internal debates that might otherwise remain less visible. The timing of the discussion, close to market close in the United States, typically stirs short-term rate expectations and contributes to evening readjustments in futures pricing. We expect a particularly careful tone given the Fed’s consistent framing around inflation risks and the resilience of consumer demand. Any deviation towards a more accommodative outlook, however minor, would almost certainly alter our rate path forecasts.
The Australian labour report, coming earlier than typical, suggests some shift either in methodology or urgency of data release. Either way, expectations are leaning towards a steady continuation of modest job growth, with the unemployment rate set to hold. We have seen prior cases where consensus predictions understate volatility in underlying participation or hours worked, leading to mild surprises. If this month’s data reflect tighter conditions, or if a sharp decline surfaces in full-time roles, repricing could occur more quickly than markets seem prepared for. Given that the Reserve Bank is projecting a rate reduction in just over a week, incoming figures now carry heavier weight than usual. The gap between announcement and that May decision window is now narrow enough that most major institutions will have locked in forecasts shortly after release.
Positioning with a Higher Sensitivity Bias
For Japan and other Asian economies listed on the 15 May calendar, there remain few anticipated shock outcomes, though we know that fixed income desks consider off-consensus results from China’s industrial production among the more sensitive triggers for asset rotation. Price figures from Korea may also see attention, depending on regional risk appetite that day. However, barring any material divergence, the broader macro outlook still leans towards stabilisation rather than reacceleration.
We are positioning with a higher sensitivity bias to intraday data over the next fortnight, especially where bond pricing remains misaligned with forward guidance. The concrete timestamps offered here—especially Daly’s remarks and the Australian employment statement—should not be viewed as isolated signals, but rather in context with scheduled central bank agenda items and prolonged rate volatility. We’d suggest that these sessions, rather than just being perfunctory updates, will likely form the basis of short-dated risk re-evaluations. Timing, as we’ve seen, matters just as much as content.
